The 2014 mid-term elections are still a little over eight months way, but that has never stopped a pundit from making prediction: Republicans will win this November. This isn’t based off any kind of statistical analysis or astrological calculation. This predication can be explained on the back of a napkin.

The first reason Republicans will win is because of Obamacare. The President’s healthcare law has done little to help insure the uninsured. Nearly all individuals signing up on the federal exchange already had insurance before the exchanges were up and running. Many were forced onto the exchanges when Obamacare mandates pushed them off their previous insurance. One way to win votes is promise them healthcare. A better way to lose votes is to promise them healthcare and then rob them blind with higher deductibles and premiums.

The second reason Republicans will win is the six-year itch. This will be the sixth year of the Obama Presidency (or Regime, take your pick). The hope and change has worn out with a lot of voters, and the motivation to go out and vote for the establishment just will not be there.

Lastly, Republicans will have their drive back. Losing the presidential elections in 2008 and 2012 were crushing for them. The tea-party movement and the libertarian movement have been very transformative for the party. It had taken many out of their comfort zones, but it will not be a major dividing force this election. Conservatives are becoming accustomed to the more diversely opinionated tent, and it will make them a stronger party. I also do not think they will justify falling on the swords out again just to prove their ideological stubbornness.

The most important thing for Republicans to remember in this primary season is the story of Goldilocks. Just as Goldilocks found the soup that was not too hot and not too cold, Republicans must find the right candidates for the job. This has also been described as: the most conservative person that can be elected.