2012: Ground game

2012: Ground game

Election of the debates? No, I prefer election of the ground game. When most people think of campaign spending, they imagine the barrage of campaign advertisements on the television and radio. The true differences this year will be in the get-out-the-vote movements.

The tide has turned to Romney, yet Obama can still win if he can maintain astronomical support and enthusiasm from his minority coalition. The composite of the electorate in 2008 must be close to the electorate in 2012. Maintaining this coalition will depend on the effectiveness of Obama’s ground game.

Obama has the benefit of maintaining his organization in Ohio since 2008. He has an enormous get-out-the-vote campaign, and early voting is going to be to his benefit. Obama worked as a community organizer in Chicago. Obama learned from the best: the Chicago Machine. Besides the 2008 presidential elections, Obama has benefited from incredibly nasty campaigns.

Romney has the benefit of momentum. Since the first debate, polls have trended steadily in his favor. This has helped to boost the Republican base’s confidence, and it has persuaded voters that he is a respectable candidate for president. The first debate put to rest the Romney that Obama had been portraying in his campaign ads.

The Obama campaign is very worried. Reversing the tide is near impossible. Ohio is their last stand, yet it may not decide the election. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan have all been moving towards Romney, and Obama does not have a ground game in those states nearly as good as the ground game in Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio, he will have proved the effectiveness of the Chicago Machine.

Obama does not deserve a second chance. His failure can be blamed both on his policies and his naiveté. Then again, maybe he can actually control the level of the oceans.