Republicans are Favored to Win the House

John Smith, Contributor

This year’s midterm election could shape the rest of Joe Biden’s presidency. Currently, Democrats currently control both the House of Representatives and the Senate. In the House, the current party distribution is 212 Republican representatives and 220 Democrat Representatives. The last 3 seats are vacant and will remain vacant until midterms (with the exception of the Indiana special election). To gain a majority in the house a party needs to secure 218 seats. 

The latest polls show that Republicans have a roughly 73% chance that they take control of the House of Representatives. There are 13 tossup districts. Of those 13 tossup districts, the Republican party only needs 3 to gain a majority. The path to a majority in the house is much easier for the Republicans than it is for the Democrats. 

Some of the Key districts that can decide the majority include Iowa’s 3rd district where the Republican candidate has less than a percentage point of a lead above the incumbent Democrat candidate. Another key house race is in North Carolina’s 13th district where the Republican candidate is leading by 3 percentage points more than the Democrat candidate.

The last district that is key in deciding the House majority is Colorado’s 8th district. The current polling shows that the Republican candidate is less than 3 percentage points ahead of their Democrat challenger. There are many more key House elections that can help determine who gains a majority. 

In the Senate, the story is much different. Democrats have an easier path and are expected to have a 62% chance of keeping control in the Senate. The current Senate contains an even 50/50 split among Republicans and Democrats, however, it is a Democratic majority because for any bills that are tied in voting the Democrat Vice President, Kamala Harris, votes on the tiebreaker.

Some of the key elections that will determine the Senate include Georgia where Incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock is 2 percentage points ahead of Republican Hershel Walker. Another toss-up is in Nevada where Republican Adam Paul Laxalt is up a tenth of a percentage point above incumbent Democrat Cathrine Cortez Masto. 

There are many more elections that have been getting closer and closer in the past weeks. The Race between Republican candidate Mehmet Oz and Democrat candidate John Fetterman is a race that has been inching closer to being a possible toss-up with the difference in percentage points being most recently at 2%. 

There are four possiblities of who wins the majority of the House of Representatives and the Senate. The probability that Republicans win both the house and senate is at 38%. The next most probable outcome in this election is Democrats win the Senate and Republicans take control of the House at 37%. Democrats have a 25% chance of winning both the House and Senate. The least possible outcome for this election is Democrats win the House and Republicans win the Senate with a probability of less than 1%. 

If Republicans are able to take control of either the House or the Senate, it would end Biden’s plans to pass any legislation. It would also mean Kevin McCarthy (unless other party members vote otherwise) takes Nancy Pelosi’s position as Speaker of the House. If Republicans take control of the Senate, Mitch McConnell will take Chuck Schumer’s role as Senate majority leader. 

Elections can only be decided by the people who vote for them. It is a U.S. Citizen’s duty to participate in elections. Election day 2022 is set for November 8th. Check where your nearest poll is to cast your ballot or if you are currently a student be sure to either absentee vote in your home state or check if you are able to vote in Minnesota elections. 

Note: All values presented in this article are subject to change due to new polls for each election.